Updated
Expected goals (xG) for and against and expected points for every Serie A team. Inter have the best underlying numbers. Lazio are overperforming most (19 points vs 10.67 expected).
| # | Team | P | xG | xGA | xG diff | xPts | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 7 | 20.06 | 8.2 | 11.86 | 16.67 | 19 |
| 2 | Juventus | 7 | 10.46 | 3.49 | 6.97 | 14.99 | 11 |
| 3 | Roma | 7 | 15.22 | 7.38 | 7.84 | 14.44 | 17 |
| 4 | Napoli | 7 | 12.66 | 8.99 | 3.67 | 12.34 | 10 |
| 5 | Milan | 7 | 11.67 | 8.83 | 2.83 | 11.52 | 15 |
| 6 | Fiorentina | 7 | 11.53 | 9.7 | 1.83 | 11.07 | 4 |
| 7 | Lazio | 7 | 10.15 | 8.73 | 1.42 | 10.67 | 19 |
| 8 | Monza | 6 | 10.39 | 7.14 | 3.25 | 10.65 | 4 |
| 9 | Como | 7 | 12.36 | 10.82 | 1.54 | 10.64 | 14 |
| 10 | Sassuolo | 7 | 11.88 | 10.36 | 1.52 | 10.58 | 8 |
| 11 | Bologna | 7 | 8.91 | 9.39 | -0.48 | 9.69 | 5 |
| 12 | Genoa | 7 | 6.39 | 8.79 | -2.4 | 7.6 | 4 |
| 13 | Lecce | 7 | 10.24 | 14.11 | -3.87 | 7.04 | 9 |
| 14 | Torino | 6 | 7.73 | 9.2 | -1.47 | 7.03 | 7 |
| 15 | Frosinone | 7 | 11.09 | 15.61 | -4.52 | 6.94 | 13 |
| 16 | Venezia | 7 | 10.88 | 16.31 | -5.43 | 6.68 | 3 |
| 17 | Udinese | 7 | 8.33 | 15.3 | -6.97 | 5.99 | 4 |
| 18 | Cagliari | 6 | 5.99 | 10.74 | -4.75 | 5.91 | 13 |
| 19 | Atalanta | 7 | 8.02 | 14.41 | -6.4 | 5.41 | 9 |
| 20 | Parma | 6 | 3.87 | 10.33 | -6.46 | 3.77 | 4 |
Inter: 20.06 xG for and 8.2 against (xG difference 11.86).