Updated
Expected goals (xG) for and against and expected points for every League Two team. Chesterfield have the best underlying numbers. Crewe are overperforming most (21 points vs 14.69 expected).
| # | Team | P | xG | xGA | xG diff | xPts | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chesterfield | 11 | 21.94 | 12.75 | 9.19 | 21.28 | 15 |
| 2 | York City | 10 | 19.06 | 11.01 | 8.05 | 19.35 | 16 |
| 3 | Grimsby | 11 | 21.88 | 15.69 | 6.18 | 19.35 | 13 |
| 4 | Shrewsbury | 11 | 14.32 | 10.98 | 3.33 | 17.46 | 14 |
| 5 | Accrington | 11 | 17.89 | 14.89 | 3 | 17.3 | 14 |
| 6 | Salford | 11 | 14.13 | 11.7 | 2.43 | 17.09 | 22 |
| 7 | Rotherham | 11 | 16.31 | 14.36 | 1.96 | 16.48 | 10 |
| 8 | Bristol Rovers | 11 | 17.61 | 14.57 | 3.04 | 16.25 | 15 |
| 9 | Oldham | 10 | 14.84 | 11.56 | 3.28 | 15.8 | 11 |
| 10 | Barnet | 9 | 17.76 | 13.35 | 4.41 | 15.45 | 21 |
| 11 | Newport | 11 | 11.86 | 13.46 | -1.6 | 15.22 | 14 |
| 12 | Crewe | 11 | 13.13 | 13.59 | -0.46 | 14.69 | 21 |
| 13 | Exeter | 11 | 12.09 | 12.35 | -0.26 | 14.58 | 13 |
| 14 | Walsall | 10 | 14.84 | 14.25 | 0.59 | 14.12 | 16 |
| 15 | Port Vale | 9 | 11.3 | 8.26 | 3.04 | 14.07 | 11 |
| 16 | Gillingham | 11 | 12.79 | 15.46 | -2.68 | 13.45 | 16 |
| 17 | Colchester | 10 | 11.97 | 14.27 | -2.3 | 12.81 | 11 |
| 18 | Tranmere | 11 | 13.23 | 17.66 | -4.43 | 12.55 | 12 |
| 19 | Swindon | 11 | 12.84 | 17.38 | -4.54 | 12.27 | 12 |
| 20 | Fleetwood | 11 | 13.75 | 19.2 | -5.45 | 11.59 | 14 |
| 21 | Crawley | 9 | 12.55 | 17 | -4.45 | 10.3 | 5 |
| 22 | Cheltenham | 11 | 11.95 | 20.34 | -8.39 | 9.73 | 15 |
| 23 | Northampton | 9 | 7.07 | 11.77 | -4.7 | 9.11 | 10 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 11 | 8.71 | 17.94 | -9.23 | 8.41 | 14 |
Chesterfield: 21.94 xG for and 12.75 against (xG difference 9.19).