Updated
Expected goals (xG) for and against and expected points for every J1 League team. Sanfrecce have the best underlying numbers. Machida Zelvia are overperforming most (23 points vs 16.61 expected).
| # | Team | P | xG | xGA | xG diff | xPts | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sanfrecce | 10 | 25.9 | 7.53 | 18.37 | 23.17 | 23 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 10 | 19.28 | 8.46 | 10.81 | 20.58 | 23 |
| 3 | Vissel Kobe | 10 | 15.41 | 10.77 | 4.64 | 17.14 | 22 |
| 4 | Kashiwa Reysol | 10 | 16.48 | 12.15 | 4.33 | 16.92 | 21 |
| 5 | Kawasaki | 10 | 17.23 | 12.75 | 4.48 | 16.74 | 16 |
| 6 | Machida Zelvia | 10 | 15.53 | 11.31 | 4.22 | 16.61 | 23 |
| 7 | Kashima Antlers | 10 | 16.6 | 12.68 | 3.91 | 15.52 | 19 |
| 8 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 10 | 14.99 | 14.34 | 0.65 | 15.2 | 15 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama FC | 10 | 11.06 | 10.53 | 0.54 | 14.46 | 13 |
| 10 | Avispa Fukuoka | 10 | 11.2 | 13.78 | -2.58 | 13.05 | 7 |
| 11 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 10 | 12.52 | 14.2 | -1.68 | 13.02 | 14 |
| 12 | Yokohama F.Marinos | 10 | 11.57 | 13.56 | -2 | 12.66 | 16 |
| 13 | Nagoya Grampus | 10 | 11.65 | 14.84 | -3.19 | 12.02 | 12 |
| 14 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 10 | 12.35 | 16.1 | -3.76 | 11.07 | 9 |
| 15 | JEF United Chiba | 10 | 9.93 | 15.06 | -5.14 | 10.44 | 6 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 10 | 11.73 | 17.08 | -5.35 | 10.26 | 8 |
| 17 | Cerezo Osaka | 10 | 10.97 | 17.51 | -6.55 | 10.26 | 12 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 10 | 12.09 | 18.79 | -6.7 | 10.08 | 7 |
| 19 | Mito Hollyhock | 10 | 9.94 | 15.96 | -6.03 | 9.56 | 9 |
| 20 | Tokyo Verdy | 10 | 6.97 | 15.95 | -8.98 | 8.06 | 4 |
Sanfrecce: 25.9 xG for and 7.53 against (xG difference 18.37).