Updated
Expected goals (xG) for and against and expected points for every Bundesliga team. Bayern München have the best underlying numbers. Elversberg are overperforming most (10 points vs 5.7 expected).
| # | Team | P | xG | xGA | xG diff | xPts | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 6 | 20.91 | 5.48 | 15.43 | 16.76 | 14 |
| 2 | Freiburg | 6 | 11.65 | 5.64 | 6.01 | 12.39 | 13 |
| 3 | Leverkusen | 6 | 13.62 | 8.09 | 5.54 | 11.86 | 13 |
| 4 | Mainz | 6 | 14.01 | 8.73 | 5.29 | 11.81 | 10 |
| 5 | Dortmund | 6 | 10.05 | 6.41 | 3.63 | 11 | 14 |
| 6 | RB Leipzig | 6 | 13.72 | 10.26 | 3.46 | 10.4 | 9 |
| 7 | Hoffenheim | 6 | 10.64 | 8.58 | 2.06 | 9.82 | 6 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 6 | 9.9 | 10.09 | -0.18 | 7.95 | 9 |
| 9 | VfB Stuttgart | 6 | 12.33 | 14.4 | -2.07 | 7.77 | 6 |
| 10 | Frankfurt | 6 | 11.17 | 13.01 | -1.85 | 7.69 | 8 |
| 11 | Köln | 6 | 9.92 | 10.9 | -0.98 | 7.59 | 7 |
| 12 | Union Berlin | 6 | 6.46 | 12.14 | -5.69 | 6.01 | 5 |
| 13 | Elversberg | 6 | 9.54 | 13.14 | -3.6 | 5.7 | 10 |
| 14 | Augsburg | 6 | 13.37 | 18.48 | -5.11 | 5.48 | 8 |
| 15 | Hamburger SV | 6 | 6.43 | 11.33 | -4.9 | 5.35 | 9 |
| 16 | M'gladbach | 6 | 8.53 | 14.81 | -6.28 | 4.91 | 0 |
| 17 | Schalke 04 | 6 | 6.59 | 11.71 | -5.12 | 4.69 | 5 |
| 18 | Paderborn | 6 | 5.78 | 11.42 | -5.64 | 4.3 | 5 |
Bayern München: 20.91 xG for and 5.48 against (xG difference 15.43).